I realize it's kind of silly to discuss, but I've been thinking a little bit about Al Gore and what might happen were he to run. I'll grant that the below is a little bit like the way I enjoy casting a remake of The Cannonball Run in my head, but I'll share it with you anyway.

So let's suppose, for the sake of argument, that Al Gore were to announce his candidacy at the Academy Awards. Now, while I think it's pretty much a lock that he'll win for An Incovenient Truth and there aren't many opportunities for candidates to announce on live TV in front of that many eyeballs, I very much doubt that he'd choose that forum. It aligns him too closely to "the Hollywood elite," and the event lacks the gravity befitting a Gore announcement. But regardless, let's say he did.

So based on the what seems to be the consensus online, Gore would almost instantly move to the head of the polls and would quickly match or best Hillary's war chest. The question is who would get hit hardest. I haven't seen any polls or postulation on this topic, though I'm sure there's some out there. My guess is that Hillary would feel the biggest pinch, as the establishment Clintonian dems probably remember Gore's role in the administration more fondly than they remember hers. On the other hand, one of the biggest obstacles to a Gore candidacy would be his former boss. Hillary and Al are reputed to be less than cozy, and it's hard to imagine Bill not lining up behind his wife. On the other hand, it wouldn't be easy for either Clinton to actually criticize Gore directly. In any case, the Clinton v. Gore matchup could be damaging to the party. The optimal situation would be for Obama or Edwards to rise in popularity so quickly as to obviate Hillary prior to Gore's entry into the race, but I don't think that's very likely. I also don't think Hillary dropping out in the name of party unity (and a VP spot) is likely either.

Which brings us to Obama and Edwards. It's difficult to say, and I'll admit my obvious bias toward Obama, but I'd bet Edwards would get hit second hardest. Not sure why, exactly. I think you could argue that Edwards appeals to a more suburban and rural demo, which I think is also much of Gore's base, while Obama's strength comes from urban centers on the coasts. But I'm totally making that up.

Ultimately, though, I think both Obama and Edwards start to feel more like VPs if a Gore candidacy becomes reality. The question is how they play it. I think the bold move for either one would be to end his candidacy immediately and throw his money behind Gore in exchange for the VP spot. In the end, though, I think Richardson is still an extrememly attractive VP, maybe even more so than more attractive Presidential candidates like Obama and Edwards.

Anyway, just thinking aloud.

And for the record, it's looking like Clooney in the Dean Martin role, Chris Tucker in the Sammy role, McConaghey in the Terry Bradshaw spot. Vince Vaughn in the Reynolds role? Not sure there.

Analogcabin @ 8:32 AM
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